Rising political violence ahead of the 2027 general elections is now a direct threat to investor confidence and Nigeria’s economic stability, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, has said
The Centre also said the country cannot afford an electoral process that compounds existing economic vulnerabilities or undermines the gains of ongoing reforms.
Conveying the warning in a policy brief released on Sunday, by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, the Centre said political competition is a legitimate feature of democracy but when it degenerates into violence, institutional manipulation and disregard for due process, the consequences go beyond politics to investment decisions, business operations, employment and economic growth.
Condemning the rising wave of politically motivated violence, the Centre said the violence was not merely a threat to democratic governance, but a significant economic risk.
It said the violence discouraged new investments. It said it delayed expansion plans, adding that it increased investor risk premiums.
It further disrupted commercial activities, supply chains, logistics and market access, as well as weakened investor sentiment. It noted that this could trigger portfolio outflows. It said it could intensify foreign exchange volatility.
The Centre also said the violence forced businesses to incur additional expenditure on security, insurance, transportation and contingency arrangements. It said it damaged Nigeria’s attractiveness as a destination for domestic and foreign investment.
It stated that the economic costs were particularly severe for small businesses. It said they were also severe for informal enterprises. It said they were severe for investors with significant fixed assets that could not be readily relocated.
The Centre said political violence must therefore be unequivocally denounced, regardless of its perpetrators or beneficiaries. It said electoral ambition must never take precedence over the security of lives, property and investments.
It urged security agencies to act proactively, impartially and decisively to prevent violence. It said they must also ensure accountability for perpetrators and sponsors.
According to the Centre, the neutrality, independence and operational effectiveness of critical state institutions are indispensable to a peaceful political transition and a stable investment climate.
It stressed that the Independent National Electoral Commission must operate independently, transparently and professionally, free from political interference or intimidation by political actors, while security agencies must provide impartial protection for all political actors, electoral officials, citizens and economic assets without selective enforcement or partisan considerations.
It maintained that the judiciary must remain independent and accessible for credible, timely and lawful resolution of electoral disputes, just as regulatory and law enforcement institutions must not be weaponised for political intimidation, selective sanctions or partisan advantage, and the civil service and public administration must sustain professionalism, continuity of essential services and neutrality in the management of public resources.
The politicization of these institutions, the Centre warned, creates risks that extend well beyond the electoral process because it weakens the rule of law, undermines regulatory predictability, increases the perception of arbitrary government action and erodes confidence in the protection of investments and contractual rights, making institutional neutrality not simply a democratic obligation but a fundamental requirement for investment security and economic competitiveness.
In order to ward off further escalation, the CPPE emphasized the need for strong commitments from political leaders and state institutions in the country.
It called for zero tolerance for political violence. Parties and their leaders must publicly reject violence. They must restrain their supporters. They must cooperate with lawful investigations and prosecution of offenders.
According to the Centre, there must be protection of institutional independence, while government and political actors must refrain from interfering with INEC, security agencies, the judiciary and other institutions central to the electoral process.
It urged responsible political communication. Leaders must avoid inflammatory rhetoric, threats and actions capable of provoking social unrest or undermining public confidence.
The Centre advised that security arrangements must prioritise the safety of commercial centres, industrial facilities, transport corridors, markets and critical infrastructure throughout the electoral period.
It added that political competition must not disrupt economic governance. It must not undermine regulatory institutions. It must not compromise existing lawful contractual and investment commitments.
The Centre maintained that the conduct of political actors and the integrity of state institutions during the 2027 electoral cycle will be important determinants of Nigeria’s political risk profile and investment outlook.
It noted that a peaceful electoral environment, credible institutions and respect for the rule of law will help sustain investor confidence. They will protect business continuity. They will preserve economic stability.
It said escalating political violence, institutional partisanship and electoral uncertainty could weaken investment appetite. They could increase the cost of doing business. They could undermine economic recovery.
The Centre advised the political class to place national economic stability above partisan interests.
It added: “Political competition must not be allowed to degenerate into violence. It must not compromise the neutrality of state institutions. It must not jeopardise the confidence of investors.Nigeria’s democracy must be strengthened through credible institutions and peaceful political competition. It must not be weakened by violence and institutional partisanship.”
