Nigeria risks losing 100,000–200,000 bpd in the 2025 if unrest escalates on account of the ongoing emergency rule in Rivers State, the Society of Energy Editors has said.
The editors also said the development would further strain the nation’s revenue.
In its second quarter outlook for Nigeria energy sector, the group also sees Increased pipeline vandalism and militant activity and logistical challenges for oil workers and supply chains due to the emergency rule.
According to the group,the emergency rule may cause potential force majeure declarations by Shell, TotalEnergies and other operators in the country.
It lamented that Nigeria’s crude oil output remains below its OPEC quota, with efforts to ramp up production hindered by insecurity, aging infrastructure, and divestments by IOCs
The group also said,Middle East conflict & Russia-Ukraine war keep oil prices elevated, benefiting Nigeria’s export earnings but worsening import costs.
It also said US trade wars with Canada, Mexico, and Europe could indirectly affect Nigeria’s trade flows, particularly in LNG and refined products, adding that global supply chain disruptions may delay critical energy sector equipment.
On inflation, exchange rate and economic reforms, the editors said the 2025 budget targets reducing inflation from 34.6% to 15%, but structural bottlenecks such as fuel prices, foreign exchange illiquidity may slow progress.
On Naira-for-Crude Deal with Dangote Refinery, the group said the non-renewal of the deal could force Dangote to source dollars for imports, worsening foreign exchange pressures,increase petrol prices if refinery passes costs to consumers,and strain NNPC-Dangote relations, deterring future partnerships.
It said International Oil Companies divestments, legacy issues and environmental liabilities remain unresolved, risking community protests and shutdowns against new operators.
The group said Dangote Refinery is expected to dominate supply, reducing imports,while NNPC may reintroduce partial subsidy if petrol prices exceed ₦1,000/litre.
It added:”Port Harcourt Refinery’s output remains uncertain; delays could prolong imports”
On Dangote Refinery petrol price hike and economic impact, the group said if Dangote increases ex-depot prices (due to crude costs), pump prices could rise to ₦900–₦1,200/litre, worsening inflation.
It noted that oossible government intervention may distort the market.
