The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG),has said that Nigeria could make N30 trillion additional oil revenue if the crisis in the Middle East persists and push global crude prices to $130 per barrel.
This could give the administration of Bola Tinubu its largest fiscal windfall in years, the group said in its new policy brief.
As Nigeria nears the 2027 general elections, the group cautioned that the crisis could also pose significant political and policy risks.
According to the group, the ongoing tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran present a cautious opportunity for Nigeria to boost its fiscal position, if it avoids the spending excesses that characterised previous oil booms.
It noted that Brent crude oil currently trades at about $99.80 per barrel, significantly above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.9 per barrel.
It said the price gap offers a potential revenue boost that could help finance the country’s more than N25 trillion fiscal deficit.
The group said crude could average about $90 per barrel under a contained disruption; $110 if the conflict spreads across the Gulf region; and $130 in the event of a prolonged global shock.
NESG said the federal government’s share of the windfall could be sufficient to cover annual debt-service obligations or fund roughly 60 per cent of the capital budget.
The cautioned that the gains are far from guaranteed, stressing that Nigeria’s oil output has averaged about 1.48 million barrels per day this year, well below the 1.84 million barrels per day projected in the national budget.
It warned that the projected gains could shrink by about 20 per cent if production fails to improve.
It identified the approaching 2027 elections as a key domestic risk.
It added: “The January 2027 election cycle is the key domestic risk,” the NESG said, warning that political pressure to ramp up spending or revive petrol subsidies could undermine recent economic reforms.”
The group advised government against reintroduction of fuel subsidies, adding that such measure could bring about distortions that eroded the benefits of higher crude prices.
The rising oil prices could still filter into domestic costs, it warned.