Tunde Sholanke
A 2023 Global Terrorism Index (GTI), facilitated by the Institute for Economics and Peace has ranked Nigeria as the eighth country in the world mostly impacted by terrorism in year 2022.
The index also acknowledged how the Nigerian government has battled the scourge for the last two decades, especially with the emergence and metamorphosis of Boko Haram, which was founded in the North East in 2002.
It noted that despite efforts by the government to annihilate the sect and put a stop to acts of terrorism in Nigeria, more deadly terrorist organisations emerged and remained resilient with devastating impacts.
The survey was authored by Dr Chukwuma Okoli, an Associate Consultant at Nextier SPD and a Lecturer at the Political Science Department at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria and Dr Ndu Nwokolo, also a Managing Partner and Chief Executive at Nextier and an Honorary Fellow at the School of Government and Society at the University of Birmingham, UK.
The report said that three of the twenty most fatal terrorist attacks in 2022 took place in Nigeria, and three of the top ten deadliest terror groups in the world operate in Nigeria.
The report added that Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram ranked as the sixth and seventh deadliest terror groups of 2022, respectively, while the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) made the list as the 10th deadliest terror group of 2022.
According to the GTI report, one dynamic which needs deeper reflection as it concerns terrorism in Nigeria is the increase in the lethality of ISWAP terrorism in Nigeria.
Reflecting on factors that would shape the future of terrorism in Nigeria,the researchers said the 2023 GTI report showed that although the number of terrorist attacks and deaths in Nigeria declined by 43.9 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively, in 2022 compared to 2021, the lethality of terrorism increased within the period.
“Deaths per attack attributed to ISWAP increased from just over three deaths per attack in 2021 to almost 3.6 deaths per attack in 2022.The group was responsible for two of the world’s twenty most fatal terrorist attacks in 2022. These two attacks occurred in Borno State, Nigeria, and accounted for 80 civilian deaths. ISWAP also gained notoriety as the deadliest terrorist group in Nigeria for the third consecutive year based on the 2023 GTI.
“Various factors account for the growing lethality of terrorist groups in Nigeria. First is the internal divisions in Boko Haram, which led to the emergence of ISWAP as a splinter group from Boko Haram in late 2015.
“While the internal division seemed to have degraded Boko Haram as a group, it created room for the emergence of ISWAP as a more brutal terrorist organisation employing new tactics to navigate the shortcomings of the parent organisation.
“ISWAP’s struggle for recognition and support by ISIS (also known as Daesh, ISIL, or simply Islamic State) during its formative years meant that the group had to deploy more lethal strategies for more successful attacks. For instance, the first independent terrorist raid by ISWAP on 3 June 2016 on a Nigerien base close to the Nigerian border was widely popularised by ISWAP to enhance its legitimacy as being in control of the Lake Chad region,” the report indicated.
The report suggested that to mitigate further spread of terrorism in the country would require the Nigerian government to rejig its counterterrorism strategy by considering increased integration of artificial intelligence in counterterrorism strategies.