Please share
..As OPEC Sees Increased World Oil Demand
Nigeria witnessed an increased production last month,according to the late latest survey of Reuters which quoted Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sources.
It said the cartel continued to raise its oil production in November under the OPEC+ deal, but the cartel continued to pump less crude than its share of the monthly increase.
Nigeria’s production had been challenged until last month when Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) lifted force majeure on crude exports from Bonny Light terminal following repairs to a leaking pipeline.
Nigeria’s production in the last few months has been below budgetary benchmark dropping to 1.37 million barrels a day in October, 261,000 bpd below its OPEC+ quota.
Under the OPEC+ deal, the 10 OPEC members bound by the OPEC+ pact should be raising their combined production by 254,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month out of the total OPEC+ monthly supply addition of 400,000 bpd.
According to Reuters survey,in November, OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 220,000 bpd to 27.74 million bpd.
The rise fell short of the 254,000-bpd increase that OPEC should be implementing.
It confirms a trend that began a few months ago—not all OPEC members have the capacity to pump to their full quotas.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer and de facto leader, saw the largest increase in production in November, in line with its target. So did Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, according to the survey.
Nigerian production managed to recover in November from a force majeure in October, but other African producers continued to struggle to produce to their targets. Oil production in Angola, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea either fell or remained flat.
Meanwhile,the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC,says world oil total demand in 2022 is estimated to reach 100.6 mb/d, around 0.56 mb/d above 2019 levels.
The cartel’s scribe,Muhammad Sanusi Barkindo,who said this at a video conference,also said world oil demand growth in 2021 now stands at 5.7 mb/d.
This reflects slower than anticipated demand from China and India in 3Q21,adding that global oil demand is now estimated to reach 96.4 mb/d in 2021..
He said Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2021, to average 63.6 mb/d. He also said the forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is 3.0 mb/d, to average 66.7 mb/d. Russia and the US contribute increments of 1.0 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d, respectively,
He added:” Turning to stocks, OECD commercial stocks stand at 2,773 mb, which is 174 mb below the 2015-2019 average with crude accounting for 148 mb and products 26 mb of this. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks in October stood at 61.6 days, 0.7 days lower than the average of 2015-2019. Moreover, we need to consider the market implications of last week’s announcement of the possible coordinated release of 70 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of several consuming countries.
” The implications of such uncertainties for excess supply in 1Q-2Q2022 should be carefully monitored.The future of monetary policies, inflationary pressures, the possible reintroduction of lockdowns, vaccine uptake rates, the vaccine-resistance of the Omicron variant and supply-chain bottlenecks are some of the uncertainties clouding the picture.
These uncertainties and implications on the global oil demand and supply balance are analysed in a scenario analysis as reflected in the ECB report”.
Please share